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2023 IIHF World Junior Championship

2023 World Junior Championship: Team Canada Preview, Projected Lineup

2023 World Junior Championship: Team Canada Preview, Projected Lineup

Another star-studded entry will make Canada heavy favorites to repeat for gold, but are they unbeatable?

Dec 20, 2022
2023 World Junior Championship: Team Canada Preview, Projected Lineup

Every World Junior Championship for the last 20 (or more) years has started with the simple question -- Can anyone beat Canada? With the largest player pool, a rich junior hockey tradition and national reverence for the tournament itself makes the World Juniors a largely Canadian-centric event.

Recent years, however, have brought forth better competition. So much so that it is no longer a foregone conclusion that the Canadians will win the gold medal. Though Canada did claim its 19th gold in the history of the tournament last summer during the rescheduled 2022 World Juniors, there has not been a repeat champion going back to 2009 when Canada completed a run of five consecutive golds.

Since 2010, Canada has won four times, the United States has won four, Finland has won three and each of Russia and Sweden have won once. So the champions have been spread around, but that won't change the fact that most years Canada is going into the event as the perceived No. 1 team.

The same will be true this year. With a roster that features eight returnees from last summer's team, three players who spent time in the NHL at the start of this season, nine first-round draft picks and each of the top two draft-eligible prospects for the 2023 Draft, there's no question Canada has the best team in paper. But you've still got to play the games.

Here's a look at some of Canada's projected lineup, strengths, weaknesses and overall outlook.

Team Canada Overview

Canada will bring a roster that is ripe with experience, both in terms of having returning players from last year's team and emphasizing the presence of 19-year-olds on the roster, with only four players not in their final year of eligibility for this tournament. 

The roster is balanced with a good dose of size and quite a bit of dynamic skill. They should score an awful lot in this tournament and will look to slow the opposition down with grinding physical play, a good forecheck and a defense that will be difficult to penetrate.

If there's one area for concern, Canada does not boast the strongest goaltending duo, though that is not uncommon for this particular year as many teams will share Canada's concern. Goaltending can often be the position of greatest importance in these short tournaments and establishing which of Ben Gaudreau and Thomas Milic should be the starter for the most important games will be a key decision in the process of trying to defend gold.

With the offensive firepower in this lineup, however, they basically just need the goalies to make the saves they're supposed to make. There's just too much depth on this team to expect they won't produce and potentially produce in great number.

Returning Players 

Connor Bedard (2023 NHL Draft Eligible), Nathan Gaucher (ANA), Brennan Othmann (NYR), Zack Ostapchuk (OTT), Jeremy Roy (MTL), Logan Stankoven (DAL), Ethan Del Mastro (CHI), Olen Zellweger (ANA)

Projected Lineup

Lines based on Canada's pre-tournament camp/exhibition games.

Brennan Othmann (NYR) - Shane Wright (SEA) - Connor Bedard (2023)
Adam Fantilli (2023) - Logan Stankoven (DAL) - Dylan Guenther (ARI)
Zach Dean (VGK) - Nathan Gaucher (ANA) - Joshua Roy (MTL)
Reid Schaefer (EDM) - Caedan Bankier (MIN) - Zack Ostapchuk (OTT)
Colton Dach (CHI)

Ethan Del Mastro (CHI) - Olen Zellweger (ANA)
Nolan Allan (CHI) - Brandt Clarke (LAK)
Kevin Korchinski (CHI) - Jack Matier (NSH)
Tyson Hinds (ANA)

Thomas Milic (undrafted)
Ben Gaudreau (SJS)

Strengths

It was clear that Canada built this roster with the idea that size matters. On paper, they are the biggest team entering the tournament with an average height of 6-foot-1 and an average weight of 189. They will also be the tournament's oldest team based on average age.

So there's good reason to believe that this Canadian team will not be easily pushed around. They've got heaviness throughout the lineup in a variety of ways, but they're especially big on the back end. Their entire D corps, with the exception of their No. 1 defenseman Olen Zellweger is 6-foot-2 or taller. Nolan Allan, Ethan Del Mastro and Jack Matier all have strong defensive capabilities and can throw the body around quite well.

While the size jumps out at you, don't let that distract you from the immense skill throughout this lineup. Connor Bedard and Shane Wright should make for a lethal duo at the top of Canada's lineup, while there's a reasonable expectation that they should get goals from all four lines and a steady contribution of offense from the back end with highly-skilled individuals like Zellweger, Brandt Clarke and Kevin Korchinski spread out among the three D pairings.

To combine all of that with the experience on this team, Canada doesn't have a ton of holes among their 20 skaters.

Weaknesses

There's always a chance that one of the two emerge, but goaltending is not necessarily the bright spot for this team. 

Gaudreau had a fine run to help Canada win gold at the 2021 U18 World Championship, posting a 5-0 record and .919 save percentage, but over the last two seasons in the OHL, his save percentage has been below .900 and this year is an unsightly .868. Meanwhile, Thomas Milic has better numbers with a .919 save percentage over 14 WHL games with Seattle this season, but he has been more in a platoon role. He was Gaudreau's backup in the 2021 U18 Worlds, but perhaps the tables will turn now?

Canada is not the only team that will be singled out about questions in net. It seems to be that every team will have to answer the same questions. Most goalies in this tournament are undrafted.

Lastly, Canada's emphasis on size may have them give up just a little bit in the speed department. I don't think they'll be a slow team by any means, but they probably won't be the fastest team in this event. Transition games matter and Canada will likely have to rely more on moving pucks fast than necessarily skating fast. We'll have to see if that plays any kind of role.

Outlook

Just as it is every year for Canada, this is a gold medal or bust team. Nothing is guaranteed anyone in this World Junior Championship because we've seen plenty of crazy results in the past. Anything can happen, but there's no doubt that Canada is the team to beat and everyone will spend the next few weeks figuring out how to do just that.